How long can an independent Havas stay – independent?
Owner Vivendi is planning to list the agency group on Euronext Amsterdam if shareholders agree, which they surely will as increasing shareholder value is the point. Holding company valuations are a mixed bag at the moment with French rival Publicis leading the pack on a heady €25bn (roughly the same in GBPs) with the UK’s WPP, still the biggest by revenue (just), worth a distinctly modest £8bn.
In the first half of 2024 Havas grew by a respectable 3.4% with £1.3bn in net revenue, behind Publicis and Omnicom but comfortably ahead of Interpublic and, likely, WPP which has yet to report. Havas also has two of the jewels in the global creative crown (assuming there still is one): BETC Paris, the biggest agency in France, and the UK’s Uncommon Creative Studio, currently embarked on an earn-out which may amount to £100m or so.
So it may attract the private equity bidders who have been running the rule over WPP and, so far, decided it’s just too complicated to figure out. Conversely, of course, Havas, which now the ability to raise funds on the market, may be an acquirer itself.
Havas, unlike Publicis, is relatively weak in the US, still by far the biggest market (Arnold Worldwide is its main vehicle), although Uncommon is doing its best to remedy that with some high profile work.
Another possibility is a move from Droga5 owner Accenture Song. With a reported $18bn in revenue, Accenture Song is up there with Publicis and WPP even though it eschews media, the main driver recently in other groups. Through its ultimate parent, giant consultancy Accenture, it already has most of the digital, ecommerce and consultancy bits its rivals are racing to acquire.
Havas Media Group might be an issue, as might a substantial Vivendi holding in the new listed company. But the prospect of adding BETC and Uncommom to his creative empire would surely appeal to one David Droga.
