New IPA Bellwether defies gloomsters with budgets up

The world may be going to hell in a handcart – steered with his customary dexterity by one D. Trump – but business has to get on with it and, judging by the latest UK Bellwether Report, here it is.

Marketing budgets have been revised up by +7.3% in Q1 2026, marking the highest level in nearly two years and up from a flatline (0.0%) net balance last quarter.

The majority of Bellwether media categories have been revised up in Q1, once again driven by Events and PR, with main media also in positive territory after having stagnated over the past few quarters. The only category revised down is market research.

S&P Global’s adspend forecast for 2026 has been revised up to +2.5%, compared to the previous forecast of 1.5%

(The survey was in field between 2-24 March 2026 so well within the Iran war timeframe.)

IPA director general Paul Bainsfair says: “These latest Bellwether results defy wider geopolitical uncertainty and signal a bullish start to the year for UK marketing investment. Looking at the detail, it is pleasing to see that budgets for main media are up. The evidence is being heeded, even in tougher conditions, cutting back on advertising risks long-term damage. It is therefore welcome news that UK companies are holding their nerve and investing to stay front of consumers’ minds, strengthen their brands and drive future growth.”

Report author Maryam Baluch at S&P Global Market Intelligence says: “After stagnating at the end of 2025, total marketing budgets returned to growth in Q1, marking a positive start to the year. This rebound occurred despite a surge in price pressures, driven by rising energy costs, which have cast a shadow of caution and concern over the broader economy. Nevertheless, marketing executives have demonstrated resilience, concentrating efforts on revenue-generating sectors and prioritising targeted, client-driven campaigns – including more events – to better position their organisations amid ongoing headwinds and uncertainty.”

So far so good then. But we’ll see..

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