IPA Bellwether reveals Q3 doom and gloom – prospects aren’t too bright either

When the UK economy tanked in Q2 this year as the country went into lockdown – and adspend with it – many people hoped for a V-shaped recovery.

You can wave goodbye to that fond notion: The IPA’s latest Bellwether Report shows that a net balance of 41% of marketers saw their budgets cut further in Q2 (50.7% in Q2.) With half the UK in a new lockdown and demanding that the other half follows suit, prospects for Q4 are just as grim. In Q3 all media took another hit with events hit hardest (there aren’t any.)

Is there anything to look forward to? Report author IHS Markit is forecasting an -11.2% contraction in GDP during 2020 as a whole including a 13.2% reduction in consumer spending and 20% decline in business investment (which includes marketing.)

It foresees a 4.6% expansion in GDP and 11.3% rise in ad spending during 2021, followed by a steady trend towards long-term growth rates. This, though, depends on somehow or other managing the virus and securing a reasonable exit deal with the EU, which doesn’t look all that likely either.

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