Researcher |WARC has provided a rather overdue dose of reality, forecasting that adspend will slow dramatically in 2023 to 2.6% – reaching a total of £765.7bn – after an 8.3% spurt to £746.6bn in 2022.
Just as significantly it looks as though thye digital tide is turning with social media companies bearing the brunt of third party cookie restrictions (if it actually ever happens) with Apple raising the wall even higher on its first party data walled gardens.
Mighty Facebook and Instagram owner Meta has already suffered with its first ad decline in Q2 2022. WARC reckons Apple, Amazon and Google will continue to thrive although Google is facing increased scrutiny with some reports from the US claiming it mines personal data in no fewer than 39 different ways.
WARC director of data, intelligence and forecasting James McDonald: “With the growth rate of global output now set to halve, and acute supply-side pressures fanning inflation, the economic slowdown has removed close to $90bn (£76bn) from global ad market growth prospects this year and next.” WARC reckons Apple’s cookie-blocking actions alone actions alone will take £34bn out of the market.
Forecasts like this and surely others to come will heap more pressure on the big ad holding companies whose share prices have mostly failed to rise despite producing decent first half 2022 numbers.