Is Biden winning the presidential psychology battle?

Elections are good news for polling companies and others occupying the murky waters of research-based prediction, but dangerous too. What if they keep getting it wrong?

Brand Keys is an interesting player, purporting to measure “voter enthusiasm,” the likelihood of messrs Trump and Biden getting out their vote on November 3. With America so split, the parties aren’t trying to convert others but preach better to the converted. Much the same thing appears to have happened in the UK’s Brexit vote – Remainers thought they would win so they didn’t. Brand Keys tipped Trump against the odds in 2016.

This time round, MediaPost reports, a survey of 1500 Democrats and the same number of Republicans shows an overall rating for Biden of 88% among Democrats, ahead of Trump’s 74% among Republicans.

Brand Keys/MediaPost

Brand Keys president Robert Passikoff says: “Loyalty and engagement metrics are leading indicators of consumer and voter behavior. They inform us as to how a voter is going to behave. We recognize that few Republicans in the administration or elected officials risk coming clean about President Trumps behavior and agendas, but our psychological assessments reveal the truth about how Republican voters really feel about Trump.”