Publicis Groupe-owned ZenithOptimedia produces the most widely-followed spending forecast and today it’s going to revise 2012 anticipated growth down from 5.3 per cent in October to 4.7 per cent. In July its global estimate for 2012 was 5.9 per cent so at this rate we should be bumping along the bottom by summer next year.
Actually Zenith is not so pessimistic, expecting ad growth in the US to increase to 3.6 per cent next year from its earlier estimate of 3.1 per cent although it expects growth in western Europe to be just two per cent. Even this, it says, will be hard to achieve if one or more countries drops out of the eurozone.
“Advertising spending is remarkably strong at a time when the eurozone threatens to fall back into recession and drag down the growth of its trading partners,” says Zenith, remarking that advertisers were “in a very different position now than they were at the start of the last recession in 2008”.
The media agency expects 2012 adspend in Asia (excluding Japan) to grow by 10.4 per cent, central and eastern Europe to grow by 9.6 per cent and Latin America by 7.3 per cent. Total spend will rise from $464bn this year to $486bn in 2012. Thereafter it will grow by over five per cent (we hope).