TV revenue forecasts could be good news for the UK economy

Good news for the TV advertising market with forecasts coming through for a strong final quarter, including an eight per cent revenue rise predicted for October.

Although the market has grown strongly through the year, the last quarter of 2009 was the strongest of that year and it was feared that the recovery might plateau in the last three months of 2010.

The ITV group of channels should be up by 11 per cent year on year, with flagship ITV1 achieving 11.5 per cent growth. Channel 4 also looks to continue its good performance with 12.5 per cent growth predicted for the main network and 12.2 for the C4 portfolio as a whole.

The intriguing question is whether we can still take TV advertising as a lead indicator for the economy as a whole. If so the level of advertiser confidence suggested by these growth forecasts signals that the UK has a good chance of avoiding the dreaded double-dip recession.

On the other hand we still have to endure George Osborne’s comprehensive spending review in October, which may well blow a whole in any recovery, however well established.

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About David O'Reilly

David is a former deputy editor of Campaign and writer for a number of leading titles including Management Today and the Sunday Times. He is a partner in The Editorial Partnership.