TV boom times are back – for a few months at least

According to respected research firm Enders Analysis they are anyway.

Enders forecasts that the UK TV market will be up by around 20 per cent in April and May this year compared to last, following tiny increases at the start of the year in the wake of a strong performance last December.

It expects the growth phase to last through the World Cup but then begin to taper off leading to flat revenues in 2011.

Quite how you can forecast accurately so far ahead is something of a mystery (yes, I know, the computer model tells you so).

In this Claire Enders and her team of boffins seem to be following the Sir Martin Sorrell school of crystal balls where worldwide ad growth is driven as much, maybe more, by big events as the wider economy. And it’s certainly true that there’s no World Cup in 2011.

But with the UK and global recovery forecast by many to pick up speed towards the end of 2010 (the Eurozone is hardly growing at all at the moment) it may be that the Enders model is unduly cautious.

Whoever’s right it’s certainly good news for incoming ITV CEO Adam Crozier who takes up his new post on April 26. Although it may make any draconian cost-cutting moves he has in mind that bit more difficult to implement.

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About Stephen Foster

Stephen is a former editor of Marketing Week and London Evening Standard advertising columnist. He wrote City Republic for Brand Republic and is a partner in communications consultancy The Editorial Partnership.

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